You Can’t Fire Me, I Don’t Work In This Van

First, let me start with saying this. I think the iPhone is the biggest thing to come out of Apple since the original Macintosh. Bigger than the iPod. Bigger than OS X.

I see a lot of people complaining about the iPhone. Some people have legitimate complaints. No sign of iChat so far, and no word on 3rd party developer support. But then I see complaints like the following:

• “It has no 3G! It’s doomed to fail!”
• “My Motosonyericsung phone can send text messages and make phone calls just fine! Apple is doomed to fail!”
• “It’s too expensive! No one will buy this over other phones! It’s doomed to fail!”

And so on.

The problem is everyone is stuck in this phone mentality. How will it compete with other phones? Why does it not work on this phone network? I know it’s called the iPhone, but during Steve’s speech, he made it clear the iPhone is three devices. It’s an iPod, internet communicator, and finally a phone. The iPhone is really only 1/3 phone. Yet, everyone is constantly talking about the phone aspects of the device, while forgetting about the other two aspects of the device.

Let’s do an exercise here. Why don’t we make a list of everything the average consumer does on a computer. If you’re a PC gamer with a 4 drive RAID, and Quad Core CPU, and SLI, please don’t list what you do with a computer. Let’s instead review what your mother would do on her computer, or your grandmother if your mother is particularly geek.

• Send email
• Store pictures
• Browse the web
• Listen to music
• Watch movies

Now, go back through the list, comparing each activity to a feature of the iPhone. Notice something? The iPhone can do everything a normal user usually does on their computer.

Some people think of the iPhone the same way Apple tells us to think of the iPod. As a device to make people more familiar with the Apple brand. The halo effect of the iPhone will bring more people to the platform, just as the iPod did. I think this is making things more complicated than the actually are. The iPhone is the next big thing Steve is always looking for. The iPhone is the next Macintosh. A user isn’t going to switch to the Mac because they bought an iPhone. They’re going to realize they can use their iPhone for everything and simply dump their PC.

Think about it. Apple has, at best currently, a 5% market share. There are predictions that their market share might grow to 10%. But the chances that the Macintosh will gain a controlling share of the market are slim to none. If Apple wants to get ahead of Microsoft and others, they can’t sit around working on the PC. Apple needs to come up with the next big thing. The thing that comes after the PC and makes it obsolete.

Apple isn’t seeking to revolutionize just the phone market. They are seeking to revolutionize something much bigger. If Apple replaces the PC with the next big thing, the Macintosh vs. PC wars become irrelevant. Windows becomes irrelevant. How does the PC matter when you can carry the exact same functionality in the palm of your hand?

And this is the beauty of the iPhone. While everyone talks about how this will replace phones from other vendors, they miss Apple’s real target, the PC. And when you look at it, it makes sense. Would you rather have a laptop for $1000, or a pocket computer for $600?

I’m not suggesting everyone ditch their computers in June and go out and buy an iPhone. And I’m not suggesting Pro users and gamers move to iPhones (can you imagine Photoshop on a screen that small?) I think PC’s and Macs will always be around for high end users. But over the next few years, I think the iPhone is going to evolve into a real competitor for the PC to the average consumer. Just as the Macintosh revolutionized a market full of Apple II’s, the iPhone will revolutionize a market full of PC’s. Steve Job’s comparisons between the iPhone and the Macintosh, and his idea of a new revolution, couldn’t be more clear.